Seeing a trade before it happens

OK, interesting trade on the EU today, another ADR to ADR trade.

What was interesting here was the 1m bounce off the ADR, its also interesting to see whether the closer we are to ADR when approaching news, the EDGE this can potentially give us. 

Vini expounding on the M3 timeframe and posted this chart. 

OK, D is putting together a new MM indicator and is quite keen about a GJ breakout in the morning so we will see.. 

I downloaded my old trading plan that was dated. the 11th of September 2011 - I cant believe this, I have been making the same old mistakes for YEARS.. just for posterity, ive included this here. 

My Trading Goal:

1.       To prove to myself that I can follow a disciplined and structured methodology, both in my trading and correspondingly, in my life.

2.       To experience first-hand how a disciplined approach to Price Action Trading can lead to great rewards both personally and financially.

3.       To be earning £4000 per month via trading by January 2011, and to increase this by £1000 per month from then on.

4.       To become an instinctual Price Action Trader who is instinctually able to identify swing points in the market

My Trading Edge:

1.       My Trading Edge is Price Action Signals on Daily Charts via Pin Bar Entries, Fakeys and Inside Bars with at least 3 points of confluence.

2.       My psychological edge is also that I have this Trading Plan, a trading diary, a set routine and a willingness to work with discipline and commitment to achieve my goal.

My Trading Weaknesses:

1.       I have lost tens of thousands of pounds by rash, undisciplined, impulsive trading and by not following my trading plan. I will remember this pain and this stupidity along with the shame and insecurity it caused to act as my motivation to do this right.

2.       To seek quick rewards, to desire too much profit, too soon and not incorporate sound risk management to all my trades.  I will adhere to this plan religiously and earn my results properly.

My Trading Strengths:

1.       I am extremely passionate and totally committed to learn price action trading and to apply the commitment and the discipline set out in my trading bible.

2.       I totally committed to the fact that these goals I set for myself aren’t  only about the results, there are about what it will make of my as a trader and more importantly as a person by applying discipline, commitment, patience and perseverance to one of the most important aspects of my life.

Points of Confluence:                                                                                                                                   

1.       I must identify a quality price action signal.

2.       I must trade with the trend, except only when price is ranging between levels or a giant buy or sell signal is given against the trend at a key historic level.                                                

3.       I must trade only at key levels close to value.                                                                                     

4.       I may use moving averages as dynamic support or resistance                                                     

5.       I may use trend lines support or resistance                                                                         

6.       I must have a logical place to target to take profit which gives me at least 2:1 risk-reward              

Specific rules for Stops:

1.       I will never move my stop loss away from a trade. EVER!

2.       I will move to BE after I’m up 2X risk on “with trend” trades, if I‘m only looking for 2:1 then I will not move the stop.

3.       I will move stop to BE when I’m up 1X risk on countertrend trades or in a ranging market.

4.       When trading against the trend, if a signal appears in the opposite direction of my trade, I will move to BE at least.

5.       I will move stop to BE after 3 whole days regardless of how far it has moved. If I am taking a loss it can be left.

6.       I will always trail my stop to 2X risk, so if I am at 3X risk my stop becomes 1X and so on.  

My Trading Strategy – Every Night after New York Close I WILL:

1.       I am a Price Action Trader who likes to identify swing points in the market

2.       Every night as NY close I will:

a.       Note the trend, Mark Resistance Lines, EMA’s and Fibs.

b.      Mark Pin Bars, Fakeys, Inside Bars and Combo’s

c.       Mark appropriate target entry points, S/L, T/P and retracements.

d.      Highlight in RED the ones to watch for the forthcoming day.

My Trading Style – On Live Trades, I WILL:

1.       Wait for candle close before I enter a trade

2.       Confirm 3+ areas of confluence

3.       Clearly define entry and exit points

4.       Risk no more than 4% of my capital in trending markets and no more than 2% in ranging or counter trend markets.

5.       Mark SL and TP on the chart

6.       ALWAYS open a trade with the SL set.

7.       Move SL to BE on R2 when trading with the trend, R1 without.

8.       Never enter a trade unless it's at least 2:1 R/R

9.       Be apprised of the economic events calendar.

10.   Only ever have a maximum of 3 open positions that are not in conflict.  

11.   Never enter a trade late, wait for further PAS.

12.   Double check that I’m completely satisfied with points 1-11 and only then Will I Enter the Trade.

13.   Not be afraid to exit a trade if it goes against me using disciplined PA methodology.

14.   Immediately update my trading diary for all my trades.

15.   Print out my trades each week for review.

16.   Keep a journal of all trades I don’t take and note how they turned out. 

__________________________________________________________________________

Well, FUCK THAT, Ive started work on a paper based pre trade checklist that I will basically follow on low equity outlays.- This WILL really, really help